What’s the point: Almost every article I write on this election starts with a phrase resembling “Biden is the favorite.” A big reason why he has the upper hand can be seen in polls like the Muhlenberg College survey out of Pennsylvania.
When you look at the Electoral College maps, Biden simply has more pathways to 270 electoral votes than Trump does at this point. If Trump wants to win, he’ll need to win a number of states Biden has a lead in, including Pennsylvania.
If Biden wins all of those states, he gets to 278 electoral votes.
Now, if Biden were to fail to win in Pennsylvania, it’s pretty easy to draw him up another map where he gets to an Electoral College majority.
This map gets Biden to exactly 270 electoral votes.
What’s key to note here is that Pennsylvania has tended to be Biden’s weakest of the Great Lake (Rust Belt) battlegrounds. It wouldn’t be shocking if he loses there but holds on to Michigan and Wisconsin.
If you add, Florida, North Carolina and the states to the states Clinton won, Biden gets over 270 electoral votes without any of the Great Lake battlegrounds.
Trump’s paths to 270 electoral votes are far more limited. Even if he were to take the states where he leads and the ones where Biden currently has a less than 5-point advantage including Arizona, Florida and North Carolina, Trump would still fall short of 270 electoral votes.
Outside of a real long shot, what Trump needs to do is simple but difficult: take Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and one Great Lake battleground state in addition to most of the states he won in 2016.
The good news for Trump is that it doesn’t matter which Great Lake battleground state he takes. The bad news is that he was to win a number of states where he is currently trailing by 3 points or more and at least one state where he’s down by more than 5 points.
That’s not impossible. Trump still could pull it off.
Biden, though, must be considered the favorite because he just has many more chances to reach 270 electoral votes.